A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
